Modelling Low-Carbon City Construction on Urban Green Development Using Quasi-Natural Experiment: A Case Study of Abuja Nigeria

Abstract

The development of low-carbon city construction has been made necessary by climate change and the urgency to minimize carbon emissions. A quasi-natural experimental approach is used in this study to assess the success of green development programmes in Abuja, Nigeria. We contrast the results in Abuja with those in other cities that have carried out comparable programmes, such as Rio de Janeiro, Curitiba, and Johannesburg. To account for selection bias, we use the difference-in-differences (DiD) method, panel data regression models, and propensity score matching. Following the introduction of green development programmes, Abuja saw a 25% decrease in carbon emissions per person. In contrast, declines of 15%, 30%, and 22% were seen in Rio de Janeiro, Curitiba, and Johannesburg. The industries caused Abuja’s energy consumption per person to drop by 20%. Reductions of 18%, 25%, and 19%, respectively, were observed in Rio de Janeiro, Curitiba, and Johannesburg, the comparative cities. This study offers guidance to decision-makers and urban planners on how effective low-carbon urban development methods are. This study offers policymakers and urban planners new information about how effective low-carbon urban development methods are.